Very intersting, although I suspect lots of correlation between outcomes. I actually had a (very quick) go at building a bayesian US presidential election model a few weeks ago in case you're interested:
Hi Dom - Thanks for sharing this. I like Bayesian hierarchical models a lot and even though they are getting more popular I think they are underused. Looks like unfortunately your model was right!
Quite interesting as most of the commentary is saying that Pennsylvania is a must, yet both candidates have a ways through without it
Absolutely. If they are correct on the Newsagents and Trump has 219 electoral college votes in the bag then it looks like this:
Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania (219 + 16 + 16 + 19 = 270)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 16 = 277)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 19 = 280)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 10 = 271)
Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania (219 + 11 + 16 + 16 + 19 = 281)
Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 16 + 10 = 272)
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania (219 + 11 + 16 + 6 + 19 = 271)
Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 19 + 10 = 275)
Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania (219 + 11 + 15 + 16 + 19 = 280)
Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 15 + 16 + 10 = 271)
Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania (219 + 11 + 15 + 6 + 19 = 270)
Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 15 + 19 + 10 = 274)
Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania (219 + 11 + 16 + 6 + 19 = 271)
Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 19 + 10 = 275)
Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada (219 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 6 = 272)
Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania (219 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 19 = 285)
Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin (219 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 10 = 276)
Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania (219 + 16 + 15 + 6 + 19 = 275)
Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 16 + 15 + 19 + 10 = 279)
Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania (219 + 16 + 16 + 6 + 19 = 276)
Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 16 + 16 + 19 + 10 = 280)
Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 16 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 270)
Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania (219 + 15 + 16 + 6 + 19 = 275)
Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 15 + 16 + 19 + 10 = 279)
North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 16 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 270)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 6 = 283)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 19 = 296)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 10 = 287)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 6 + 19 = 286)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 6 + 10 = 277)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 19 + 10 = 290)
Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania (219 + 11 + 16 + 16 + 6 + 19 = 287)
Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 16 + 6 + 10 = 278)
Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 16 + 19 + 10 = 291)
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 281)
Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania (219 + 11 + 15 + 16 + 6 + 19 = 286)
Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 15 + 16 + 6 + 10 = 277)
Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 15 + 16 + 19 + 10 = 290)
Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 15 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 280)
Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 281)
Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania (219 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 6 + 19 = 291)
Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin (219 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 6 + 10 = 282)
Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 19 + 10 = 295)
Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 16 + 15 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 285)
Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 16 + 16 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 286)
Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 15 + 16 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 285)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 6 + 19 = 302)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 6 + 10 = 293)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 19 + 10 = 306)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 296)
Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 16 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 297)
Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 15 + 16 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 296)
Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 301)
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (219 + 11 + 16 + 15 + 16 + 6 + 19 + 10 = 312)
Very intersting, although I suspect lots of correlation between outcomes. I actually had a (very quick) go at building a bayesian US presidential election model a few weeks ago in case you're interested:
https://github.com/dominicbates/us-election-model
Hi Dom - Thanks for sharing this. I like Bayesian hierarchical models a lot and even though they are getting more popular I think they are underused. Looks like unfortunately your model was right!
Oh, this is awesome! I love how your brain works. Hoping that Trump does not win and Harris gets the job. Hope you’re well.
Thanks Matt. Looks like very sadly it didn't happen. Hope things are going well for you too
That’s cleared that up… is there a Trump equivalent? These can help keep me awake tonight